The Next Revolution in the Semiconductor Industry: The Potential and Urgency of Quantum Computers Beyond GPUs
Current State and Challenges of the Semiconductor Industry
The semiconductor industry has continued to evolve, but in recent years, its growth has shown signs of slowing. Semiconductors for smartphones have largely become commoditized, and today, GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) are the primary revenue drivers in the sector. However, many experts point out a looming issue: there is no clear vision for “what comes after the GPU.”
While the AI boom has brought a surge in demand for GPUs—led by companies like NVIDIA—the innovation cycle dictates that the industry must urgently find its next growth engine.
Quantum Computers: A Strong Contender Beyond GPUs
In this context, quantum computers, which leverage semiconductor technologies, have emerged as a strong candidate to succeed GPUs. However, quantum computing faces significant challenges. Its computing principles are fundamentally different from the current MOS (Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor) structure, and multiple approaches—such as superconducting, ion trap, and photonic methods—exist, making it difficult to determine which technology will ultimately dominate.
Industry Trends
At the same time, the power semiconductor market is also stagnating. The spotlight is on companies like Japan’s Rapidus and Taiwan’s JASM (Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing), which are investing in enhancing their cutting-edge logic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Looking ahead, these companies will also need to prepare for a shift toward quantum technologies.
The Potential of Semiconductor-Based Quantum Computers
In the semiconductor industry's roadmap, quantum computers are positioned as the next logical step following GPUs. Their most noteworthy feature is their versatility. In the future, they are expected not only to absorb current GPU-level demand but also to acquire general-purpose computing capabilities akin to CPUs.
This is closely tied to cryptographic technologies. The logic for breaking encryption relies on arithmetic operations embedded in logical circuits using CPUs. If quantum computers are capable of breaking encryption, it logically follows that they possess general-purpose computational power. For those who take the security of cryptographic technologies seriously, the versatility of quantum computers becomes an unavoidable consideration.
The Reality and Urgency of International Competition
A fierce development race is already underway behind the scenes around the world. In particular, China is advancing semiconductor-based quantum computing as a national project. In such a landscape, saying “we’ll start next year” is clearly too late.
Only by beginning concrete initiatives this year can practical results be expected. Research and development of semiconductor quantum computers has moved beyond technical curiosity and become a vital matter of national competitiveness.
Conclusion
The next revolution in semiconductors is likely to be driven by quantum computers, and the race has already begun. For Japan to regain its former prominence in the semiconductor field, it must immediately accelerate its investment in quantum technologies and the development of relevant human capital. The time to prepare for tomorrow is today.