The Meaning of the Supply Chain for Quantum Computers is Being Upended in 2024

The development of quantum computers has so far required many components. Notably, low-temperature cables, large cryogenic refrigerators, and the room-temperature control and readout devices connected to them are prime examples. These components are essential for the stable operation of quantum computers, and many companies are considering commercializing manufacturing equipment for these components. For instance, companies like Bluefors in Finland are conducting business with cryogenic refrigerators.

However, our perspective is slightly different. These components and equipment may become rapidly obsolete in the future. The equipment that was necessary during the early days of quantum computers is planned to become mostly unnecessary or be converted to manufacturing equipment for manufacturing itself during the mass production phase.

The Advancement and Impact of Chip Miniaturization

As quantum computer technology evolves and miniaturization progresses, chip miniaturization is advancing rapidly. This is expected to lead to several changes:

1. Reduction in Manufacturing Costs: The elimination of the need for large equipment allows for chip-level manufacturing, significantly reducing costs.
2. Performance Improvement: Miniaturization increases the density of qubits, greatly enhancing computational power.
3. Acceleration of Adoption: Smaller quantum computers will be more widely available, accelerating their adoption across various applications.

The Emergence of Cryo-CMOS, Chiplets, and SoC

Furthermore, miniaturization involves adopting existing semiconductor technology in low-temperature environments known as Cryo-CMOS. Recently, this technology has rapidly developed, with more semiconductors being placed near the quantum computer chips. Technologies like SoC and chiplets are increasingly being placed near quantum computer chips.

This arrangement renders many control and readout devices unnecessary, as processing occurs close to the qubits. Trends in quantum error correction are following this direction, avoiding the inefficiency of bringing computational signals to room temperature and back. Preparing dedicated semiconductors near the quantum chips enables high-speed processing. Indeed, since the logic of such computational processing is fixed, it is relatively easy to implement as a dedicated chip in the vicinity.

The Future of Specialized Manufacturing Equipment

There will still be a certain level of demand for specialized manufacturing equipment, but the market size might not grow as much as expected. Instead, the focus may shift to integrating semiconductor-related materials and manufacturing equipment centered around chips. While the manufacturing of quantum computers will not be identical to conventional computers, it might resemble the relationship between engines and motors in automobiles.

New Trends and Changes in the Supply Chain

2024 is likely to be the year when these new trends emerge. Semiconductor specifications often improve rapidly, potentially capping the demand for equipment. Considering this situation, the supply chain for quantum computers might resemble the existing semiconductor supply chain centered around chips. It might take a form similar to the semiconductor supply chain centered on companies like Rapidus and TSMC.

The Decline in Quantum Computer Prices

Following these trends, the prices of quantum computers are expected to drop significantly. Much of the budget for quantum computers has historically been allocated to peripheral devices. As the trend towards integrating multiple functions into chips via SoC and chiplets continues, this realization will reduce costs and transportation efforts. The size and price of quantum computers are expected to drop significantly with rapid miniaturization and mass production.

Future Outlook

As the mass production of quantum computers progresses, we anticipate significant transformations across industries. We need to closely monitor these changes to identify new business opportunities. Although it is still difficult to predict which direction things will go, there is no doubt that new possibilities will emerge as technology evolves. We will also respond to these changes, striving to develop innovative solutions leveraging cutting-edge technology.

The behavior of CMOS at low temperatures is becoming increasingly understood, making the mass production and efficiency of semiconductor-based quantum computers more realistic. Many releases are scheduled worldwide from the end of this year to early next year, so we must pay attention to the fate of such large-scale equipment. As mass production progresses, many components and equipment previously considered indispensable may become unnecessary. However, the emergence of new technologies and products accompanying this shift will create new business opportunities. We will actively embrace these changes and provide innovative solutions that adapt to future technologies.