In my younger days, I was passionate about technology. Now, as I’ve started to age and have ridden the wave of deep tech two or three times, I’ve realized many things and decided to pen down my thoughts in a poetic manner.
After graduating from university, I got a job and then went independent and started my own business in 2008. Initially, I worked on design and architecture, but over time, my interests shifted, leading me to transition from web design to web systems and algorithm development. Since 2014, I have focused on quantum computing almost exclusively.
Experiencing milestones like Google's/NASA's announcement of a 100 million times faster quantum annealing in 2016 and Google's quantum supremacy news in 2019 firsthand was thrilling. I founded my company at 32, and suddenly, I find myself at 46. Ten years flew by in the blink of an eye as I kept up with the technology daily.
In recent years, the global trend in quantum computing has been described as a "quantum winter," with many colleagues leaving the field, leading to a slowdown in activities. While there has been some excitement in Japan, I'm not very familiar with the domestic trends. However, seeing a resurgence abroad last year, I plan to resume my activities accordingly.
Navigating the quantum industry for nearly a decade relatively unscathed has been about reading the market and managing finances. Overseas, poor financial management often leads to failure, but the high turnover rate (though I’m not sure how it works) means new players keep emerging. In reality, even abroad, entrepreneurs who fail once rarely get a second chance unless they achieve significant success. With many new faces, there’s little incentive to take risks on previous failures. This is especially true in the quantum industry, where failure is closely scrutinized.
The quantum field often resets, causing companies to disappear or merge with others. Many people quit at crucial points, primarily due to salary issues.
In Japan, many move from research to startups, only to fail and return to research. This might be true abroad as well. Most failures are due to financial and business planning issues rather than technical ones. I’ve seen many with great technology fail because they couldn’t pivot effectively.
Currently, I’m not particularly focused on any quantum venture companies, domestic or international. As the industry matures, major players like Google and Microsoft in AI and BYD in the automotive sector are beginning to dominate. My top quantum company of interest is Intel, not a startup.
In terms of money management, the quantum industry hasn't progressed much over ten years. There’s a gap between VC’s understanding of deep tech and startups' understanding of commercialization, leading to poor communication. Since 2018, after our funding from SBI, many quantum startups have raised funds, probably using our valuation and funding amount as a reference. By 2024, most quantum companies that haven’t pivoted are likely facing tough prospects.
Regarding government support and funding, Japan is active, but our company hasn't utilized or participated much, so I can’t comment on it. My only hope is for taxpayer money to be well-spent.
Recently, there has been a rise in new hardware and software forces overseas. Some specialized quantum VCs aren’t necessarily top-tier but are reliable and steady.
As I get older, competing on the front lines of technology becomes difficult, so my interest in financial movements grows. There’s hope for a new trend this year, which is exciting.
[Additional Note] I’ve come to understand that technology is just one means to solve problems with money. The LLM race shows that everyone ends up with similar technology, leading to intense competition. It might be the same with quantum technology.